I always hear that laser eye surgery is getting better every year, but is that true?

When my brother began looking into laser eye surgery for himself, I began to investigate and here is what I found.

What already improved

A 2016 review of 97 studies (almost 68,000 eyes) found 99.5% of patients ended up 20/40 or better (good enough to drive without glasses) and only about 1% were dissatisfied.1

Downsides

What's still coming

I don't know when any of these new techniques will arrive, but I am looking forward to it! For myself, I am choosing to wait because I believe the advancements are worth waiting for, and my vision is mild.

Appendix

A. How your eyes focus.

B. The timelines Claude made me.

Show screenshots
Screenshot of Claude's answer: a timeline of past laser eye surgery milestones from 1999 LASIK approval through 2025 ray-tracing LASIK, with rough success-rate labels.
Claude's version of the past. The success-rate numbers are rough.
Screenshot of Claude's predicted near-term improvements, 2026 to 2030, including AI surgical planning and new flapless procedures.
Claude's near-term guesses, with made-up dates.
Screenshot of Claude's further-out predictions, 2029 to 2040, sorted by confidence, from cross-linking combos to smart contact lenses.
Claude's far-future guesses, sorted by how confident it is.

References

1 Timeline dates from the American Academy of Ophthalmology's "A Look at LASIK Past, Present and Future", Peyman's 1989 LASIK patent (US 4,840,175), and their SMILE explainer. Outcomes: Sandoval et al., "Modern laser in situ keratomileusis outcomes," Journal of Cataract & Refractive Surgery (2016): 99.5% at 20/40 or better uncorrected, 90.9% within ±0.5 D of target, about 1.2% dissatisfied.

2 Schmack et al., "Cohesive tensile strength of human LASIK wounds," Journal of Refractive Surgery (2005), which measured central flap adhesion at roughly 2% of normal cornea and the flap edge at about 28%. See a case report of a flap dislocated 24 years later; these are rare and take trauma to the eye.

3 Overview of LASIK flap and interface complications (epithelial ingrowth, diffuse lamellar keratitis): Moshirfar et al., 2014.

4 Review of Optometry, "LASIK, LASEK or PRK for Cop?", on why officers who might face pepper spray have been steered toward flapless procedures. The one direct study I could find, a 2002 Journal of Refractive Surgery letter, reported that LASIK eyes held up fine after pepper spray exposure in military training.

5 American Academy of Ophthalmology on SMILE, plus a peer-reviewed comparison of SMILE and LASIK: Titiyal et al., 2018.

6 On LASIK Xtra: Review of Ophthalmology, "LASIK Xtra: Is It for Everyone?", and a review of cross-linking after refractive surgery: Corneal Collagen Crosslinking for Ectasia After Refractive Surgery (2024). Studies show good stability so far but have not directly shown it reduces the ectasia rate.

7 Laser-induced refractive index change (LIRIC), from the University of Rochester and Clerio Vision: the Huxlin Lab overview and the first-in-human results (ARVO 2019).

8 American Chemical Society, "An alternative to LASIK, without the lasers" (August 2025), and the earlier proof-of-concept in ACS Biomaterials Science & Engineering.

9 FDA approvals: Vuity (Oct 2021), Qlosi (2023), Vizz (July 2025). For slowing kids' nearsightedness, low-dose atropine drops are used off-label; see the AAO's overview.